ABSTRACT
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a huge threat to global public health. Motivated by China's experience of using Fangcang shelter hospitals (FSHs) to successfully combat the epidemic in its initial stages, we present a two-stage delay model considering the average waiting time of patients' admission to study the impact of hospital beds and centralized quarantine on mitigating and controlling of the outbreak. We compute the basic reproduction number in terms of the hospital resources and perform a sensitivity analysis of the average waiting times of patients before admission to the hospitals. We conclude that, while designated hospitals save lives in severely infected individuals, the FSHs played a key role in mitigating and eventually curbing the epidemic. We also quantified some key epidemiological indicators, such as the final size of infections and deaths, the peak height and its timing, and the maximum occupation of beds in FSHs. Our study suggests that, for a jurisdiction (region or country) still struggling with COVID-19, when possible, it is essential to increase testing capacity and use a centralized quarantine to massively reduce the severity and magnitude of the epidemic that follows. © 2023 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
ABSTRACT
Many countries have adopted border closures and other jurisdictions (provinces, states, cities, etc.) to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Such measures have significantly restricted population movement and have thus led to immense economic and social fallouts. We build a Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic- Infectious (prodromal phase)- Infectious (with symptoms) -Recovered (SEAIR) model with a household structure to investigate the potential of a safe reopening of a border, which can control disease spread but also allow for economic growth. We focus on the Ontario-USA border, considering an opening date of September 21, 2020. In addition to the instantaneous reproduction number, we also define a novel risk indicator by calculating daily new infections’ percentile to inform risk levels promptly. Under ideal conditions, assuming extremely efficient border testing and strict traveler adherence to quarantine policy, the Ontario-USA can be reopened for a maximum daily number of 500 travelers entering Canada. A number exceeding 500 will stem an uncontrollable spread of the virus. Additionally, the current quarantine policy may not be sufficient under specific scenarios;hence testing measures at the border must be extremely efficient. Reopening of the Ontario-USA must consider the potential for disease spread (which can overburden healthcare resources) and economic growth. If a reopening plan is implemented, the local government must limit the number of daily entrances to 500 and enforce a mandatory quarantine, which may need to be stricter than current policy practice. © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.